Dubai's property market closed 2025 with figures that would have seemed implausible three years ago. The Dubai Land Department recorded over 226,000 transactions — a new all-time record, surpassing 2024's prior record of approximately 177,000. Total transaction value crossed AED 761 billion for the year. Q1 2026 has shown no sign of reversal: volume is tracking ahead of Q1 2025 on a like-for-like basis, and the structural drivers that powered 2025 remain intact.
Average price-per-sqft across the city reached approximately AED 1,650 by end-2025, representing roughly 15% growth year-on-year. The bifurcation between prime and mid-market has deepened: Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Dubai, and Dubai Hills Estate delivered 15–22% price appreciation in 2025, while more supply-heavy communities such as Jumeirah Village Circle and Studio City compounded a more measured 6–9%.
Off-plan crossed 65% of total 2025 transactions — a structural shift, not a cyclical blip. Payment plan structures have evolved significantly: 80/20 post-handover plans are now standard from Tier-1 developers, and some launches offered 90/10 terms. This staggering of capital has democratised access to premium launches and materially extended the buyer pool beyond those with immediate liquidity.
The branded residence segment remained the market's price-setting mechanism. Developments with hotel-brand associations — Six Senses, Dorchester, Baccarat, Bugatti — consistently transacted at 40–70% premiums over comparable non-branded stock in the same micro-market. The pipeline of branded launches in 2026 is substantial: Palm Jebel Ali, Dubai Islands, and the waterfront corridors of MBR City all have branded announcements pending.
International buyer composition continued to diversify. Indian buyers were the most active nationality by volume in 2025, followed by British, Russian, and Chinese purchasers. European family office capital — particularly from Italy, France, and Germany — grew meaningfully in H2 2025, attracted by the Golden Visa framework and the dirham's USD peg providing implicit euro-hedge properties. Gulf national buyers, historically dominant in villa communities, remained active in the AED 5M+ segment.
Rental yields held their ground despite price appreciation. The citywide gross yield average settled around 6.2% in 2025 — compressed from 2023's 7.1% peak but still among the highest for a major global city with no rental income tax. JVC, Al Furjan, and International City continued to lead at 8–10% gross, while prime waterfront communities (Palm, Marina, Downtown) clustered at 4.5–6%.
For Q2 2026, our desk expects sustained volume with modest pricing moderation in the most supply-heavy mid-market pockets. The EIBOR-linked variable rate environment (current spread: 3.5–5.5% for expat mortgages) is not materially constraining cash buyers, who account for the majority of prime transactions. The more relevant risk is launch-day over-supply: with 35,000+ off-plan units expected to be released in Q2 2026, quality of developer and location will increasingly differentiate outcomes.
